Controlled Trial to Evaluate Amifampridine Phosphate in Spinal Muscular Atrophy Type 3 Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-07-23, after 2019-01-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientpatientsmonthspotentialagent
Phrases that lowered it: screeningdruginvestigatorcrossovermale -
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 6 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- amifampridine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Long Term Safety of Amifampridine Phosphate in Spinal Muscular Atrophy 3 NCT03819660 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of NMD670 in Ambulatory Adult Patients With Type 3 Spinal Muscular Atrophy NCT05794139 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Olesoxime (TRO19622) in 3-25 Years SMA Patients. NCT01302600 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Short and Long Term Treatment With 4-AP in Ambulatory SMA Patients NCT01645787 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- A Study of RO6885247 in Adult and Pediatric Patients With Spinal Muscular Atrophy (MOONFISH) NCT02240355 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.