Effect of Vitamin D3 on Lung Function and Exercise Tolerance in COPD Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (74 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-02-01, after 2017-03-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutepulmonarydiseaseuncontrolledstable
Phrases that lowered it: effect offev1patientsevaluateparticipants -
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 146968 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- supportive care (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 10 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 16 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 6 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 146968 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 24743 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol, gelatin, microcrystalline cellulose, stearate, stearic acid, toluene
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- This Study Include Asthma Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Overlap Patients.Patients Were Vitamin D Deficient.Age Range 40-70 Years, Smokers.Patients Were Advised to Take Either Placebo or Vitamin D3.Lung Functions and Exercise Tolerance Were Assessed at Baseline and at 26th Weeks. NCT03880734 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Study of the Effect of Vitamin D as an Add-on Therapy to Corticosteroids in Asthma NCT01248065 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Rapid vs Maintenance Vitamin D Supplementation in Deficient Children With Asthma to Prevent Exacerbations. NCT01395589 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D to Prevent Severe Asthma Exacerbations (Vit-D-Kids Asthma) NCT02687815 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Vitamin D Improves Clinical Manifestations in Asthmatic Children NCT05167617 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.