Phase 1/2 Dose Finding and Safety Study of Ibrutinib in Pediatric Subjects With Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (45 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: grafttherapyhostenrollmentactive
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetymoderatesubjectssingledays before
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 24 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 21 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor in Subjects With Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease NCT02195869 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Ibrutinib in Participants With Steroid Dependent/Refractory Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD) NCT03474679 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Ibrutinib in Combination With Corticosteroids vs Placebo in Combination With Corticosteroids in Participants With New Onset Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD) NCT02959944 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Ibrutinib in Treating Patients With Refractory or Relapsed Lymphoma After Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT02869633 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Front Line Ibrutinib Without Corticosteroids for Newly Diagnosed Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease NCT04294641 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.