Interleukin-1 Blockade In Recently Decompensated Heart Failure - 2
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-07-22, after 2019-01-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicfailurecancerheartdisease
Phrases that lowered it: pressuremgmmhgplasmasystolic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 208 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 208 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 60 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4104 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1078 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anakinra
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Interleukin-1 Blockade in Recently Decompensated Heart Failure NCT01936909 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Interleukin (IL)-1 Blockade in Acute Heart Failure (Anakinra ADHF) NCT01936844 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Pilot Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Anakinra (Recombinant Human Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist) in Heart Failure NCT01300650 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Interleukin-1 Blockade in HF With Preserved EF NCT02173548 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Effect of Dapagliflozin on Submaximal Exercise Tolerance in Heart Failure NCT04956809 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.