AMTEC IIT: Phase 2 Multiarm Study in TNBC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-12-23, after 2018-12-12 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticbreast cancerher2transplantprior
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantaminotransferasepatients whotumors -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4645 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4645 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2113 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capivasertib, ceralasertib, durvalumab, olaparib, selumetinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Olaparib and Durvalumab in Treating Participants With Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03544125 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- ZAP-IT: ZN-c3 + Carboplatin + Pembrolizumab in mTNBC NCT06351332 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
- OLAParib COmbinations NCT02576444 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- A Phase II Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Cabozantinib for Metastatic Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT03316586 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Olinvacimab With Pembrolizumab in Patients With mTNBC NCT04986852 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.