Cannabis Extract in Refractory Epilepsy Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: seizuresmultiplemotorsubjects withstable
  Phrases that lowered it: patients withthe studytrialdrugdifferent
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized Controlled Trial of Cannabidiol (GWP42003-P, CBD) for Seizures in Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (GWPCARE6) NCT02544763 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Oral Administration of PTL101 (Cannabidiol) as an Adjunctive Treatment for Pediatric Intractable Epilepsy NCT02987114 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Cannabidiol (CBD) to 27 Patients (Aged 2 Years - 19 Years) With Drug Resistant Epilepsy NCT02286986 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GWP42003-P for Seizures Associated With Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome in Children and Adults NCT02224560 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• An Open-label Extension Study to Investigate Possible Drug-drug Interactions Between Clobazam and Cannabidiol NCT02564952 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.