A Phase I/II Clinical Trial of PepCan in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerand neckhead andcarcinomasquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmavisitperiodmalesubjects
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of PEP503 With Radiotherapy in Combination With Concurrent Chemotherapy for Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT02901483 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Trial of PepCan to Two Therapy Arms for Treating Cervical High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions NCT02481414 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Phase I/II Study of Radiation Therapy, Paclitaxel Poliglumex and Cetuximab in Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT00660218 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Pepinemab in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT04815720 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Activity and Safety of Peptide-based Immunotherapy in Patients With Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck. NCT04445064 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.