A Study to Evaluate Rucaparib in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Selected Solid Tumors (ARIES)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-08-24, after 2019-08-23 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertumorsstagesoliddisease
Phrases that lowered it: evaluatestudy toat screeningopen labelmutation -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 16 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 16 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 37869 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11502 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 31.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nivolumab, rucaparib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Oral Rucaparib in Patients With a Solid Tumor (Phase I) or With gBRCA Mutation Ovarian Cancer (Phase II) NCT01482715 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- A Combination Study of Rucaparib and Atezolizumab in Participants With Advanced Gynecologic Cancers and Triple-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03101280 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study of Rucaparib in Patients With Platinum-Sensitive, Relapsed, High-Grade Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer (ARIEL2) NCT01891344 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Rucaparib in Combination With Other Anticancer Agents in Participants With a Solid Tumor (SEASTAR) NCT03992131 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- ARIEL4: A Study of Rucaparib Versus Chemotherapy BRCA Mutant Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer Patients NCT02855944 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.