A Study of Semorinemab in Patients With Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mriadalzheimercognitivedementia
  Phrases that lowered it: participantvaccineand safetyscreeningpharmacokinetics
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Semorinemab in Patients With Prodromal to Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT03289143 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess the Safety and Biological Activity of AMX0035 for the Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease NCT03533257 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MABT5102A in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease (ABBY) NCT01343966 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2a Study to Investigate REM0046127 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT05478031 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Immunogenicity of Anti-Abeta (MABT5102A) in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT00736775 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.