The Efficacy and Safety of Nab-paclitaxel Plus S-1 in First-line Treatment of Advanced Biliary Tract Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: adenocarcinomaeffectiveconcurrentheartchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesaccordingtractabnormalmale
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of S-1 Plus Cisplatin (SP) Versus Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin (GP) in Advanced Biliary Tract Adenocarcinoma NCT01375972 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• NGS as the First-line Treatment in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04172402 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of S-1 in Combination With Gemcitabine as First-Line Treatment in Patients With Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT02425137 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Bevacizumab Plus Nab-paclitaxel and Tegafur Gimeracil Oteracil Potassium Capsule (S-1) as Second-line Treatment for Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer: a Phase Ⅱ Clinical Trial NCT07719738 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Bevacizumab in Combination With Cisplatin Plus Gemcitabine in Patients With Untreated, Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04677504 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.