Sacubitril/Valsartan vs Lifestyle in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartreceptorleftfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: physicaleffectparticipantbodyblood pressure
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 159026 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 38372 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lifestyle and Pharmacological Interventions in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT05366101 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy of Oral Sacubitril/Valsartan in Adult Patients With Non-obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT04164732 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Nitrate's Effect on Activity Tolerance in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT02053493 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Inorganic NItrate and EXercise Performance in Heart Failure (iNIX-HF): Dose Response NCT02797184 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Inorganic Nitrite Delivery to Improve Exercise Capacity in HFpEF NCT02742129 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.