M7824 in Combination With Chemotherapy in Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagechemotherapycancertherapygreater than
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantevaluate theto evaluateopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 227320 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 44984 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Compared to Platinum-Based Chemotherapies in Participants With Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-024/KEYNOTE-024) NCT02142738 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study of Carboplatin-Paclitaxel/Nab-Paclitaxel Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Adults With First Line Metastatic Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-407/KEYNOTE-407) NCT02775435 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed + Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Adults With Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor- (TKI)-Resistant Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor- (EGFR)-Mutated Metastatic Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (MK-3475-789/KEYNOTE-789) NCT03515837 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189) NCT02578680 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab + Idelalisib for Lung Cancer Study NCT03257722 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.