Preoperative Immunotherapy (Pembrolizumab) for Patients With Colorectal Cancer and Resectable Hepatic Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastasesof studyreceivingchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantthe trialrangeaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab Before Surgery for the Treatment of Mismatch Repair Deficient Locally Advanced Solid Cancers NCT04082572 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Assess the Efficacy of Pembrolizumab Plus Radiotherapy or Ablation in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT02437071 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab, Capecitabine, and Bevacizumab for Treating Colorectal Cancer NCT03396926 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Window of Opportunity Study in Colorectal Cancer NCT03984578 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Colorectal Liver Metastases With Immunotherapy and Bevacizumab NCT03698461 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.