A DOSE-RANGING STUDY TO EVALUATE EFFICACY AND SAFETY OF PF-06700841 IN SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS (SLE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpfactivelupuspain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andmoderatethe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1810 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 164 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Subcutaneous Treatment In Randomized Subjects To Evaluate Safety And Efficacy In Generalized Lupus Erythematosus NCT01405196 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine (PF-06823859) in Adults With Active CLE or SLE With Skin Symptoms. NCT05879718 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability Study Of PF-06835375 In Subjects With Seropositive Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Or Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03334851 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Phase 1b/2a Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of KPG-818 in SLE NCT04643067 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CC-220 in Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03161483 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.