A Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy Evaluation of CC-90011 Given in Combination With Cisplatin and Etoposide in Subjects With First Line, Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasventricularleftsubject iscell
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatoraminotransferasetopicalthe studyparticipant
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 31530 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Efficacy Study of CC-90011 in Combination With Nivolumab in Subjects With Advanced Cancers NCT04350463 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Phase I/II Study of Nivolumab, Ipilimumab and Plinabulin in Patients With Recurrent Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03575793 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Preliminary Efficacy of CC-90010 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors and Relapsed/Refractory Non-Hodgkin's Lymphomas NCT03220347 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study of CC-90011 and Comparators in Participants With Prostate Cancer NCT04628988 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic of CC-95775 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors and Relapsed/Refractory Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma NCT04089527 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.