Radiation and Combination Immunotherapy for Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 36% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: vaccineradiationmelanomapotentialinfluenza
  Phrases that lowered it: drugshepaticlinediseasesclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15539 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 53312 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Encorafenib + Binimetinib + Pembrolizumab in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Mutant Melanoma NCT02902042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study of Combination Therapy With INCMGA00012 (Anti-PD-1), INCAGN02385 (Anti-LAG-3), and INCAGN02390 (Anti-TIM-3) in Participants With Select Advanced Malignancies NCT04370704 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab vs Ipilimumab Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma Who Have Progressed or Relapsed on PD-1 Inhibitor Therapy NCT02731729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• TIL-ACT After NMA Chemo with IL-2 and Nivo Rescue in Metastatic Melanoma (mMEL) NCT03475134 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.