A Phase 1 Study of Intravesical VAX014 for Instillation in Subjects With Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: in subjectssubjects withcellsinvasivetherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: urinaryscreeningpharmacokineticto evaluateevaluate the
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Intravesical Enfortumab Vedotin For Treatment of Patients With Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT05014139 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Intravesicular Abraxane for Treatment-Refractory Bladder Cancer NCT00583349 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• ADSTILADRIN (=INSTILADRIN) in Patients With High-Grade, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT02773849 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• VPM1002BC in Recurrent Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02371447 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Multi-center Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Maintenance Therapy With Valrubicin Versus no Maintenance, in Subjects Treated With Valrubicin Induction for Carcinoma in Situ (CIS) of the Bladder NCT01310803 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.