Efficacy and Safety of Oral BT-11 in Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keyactivedefinedinfectioncd
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andagedto evaluatevaccination
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity in Participants Between 18 to 75 Years of Age Treated With Intravenous (IV) Infusion and Subcutaneous (SC) Injections of ABBV-154 for Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT05068284 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Oral BT-11 in Ulcerative Colitis NCT03861143 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of MT-1303 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Active Crohn's Disease NCT02378688 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• VTX958 for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT05688852 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Whether Etrolizumab is a Safe and Efficacious Treatment for Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02394028 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.