The Role of Neuroactive Steroids in Stress, Alcohol Craving and Alcohol Use in Alcohol Use Disorders

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasto assesssymptomscerebralsubjects must
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholindividualsblood pressuremmhgcurrent
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 573 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Ethanol on the Pharmacokinetics of PT-150 (Formerly ORG34517) (PT150 PK Study) NCT04331288 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Medication Development for Protracted Abstinence in Alcoholism: CORT118335 Versus Placebo NCT04466215 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Neuroendocrine Response to Oral Alcohol Administration NCT03165942 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Title: Effect of Opioid Receptor Modulation on Alcohol Self-Administration and Neural Response to Alcohol Cues in Heavy Drinkers: Role of OPRM1 Gene Variation NCT02639273 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Novel mGluR5 Modulator Effects on Alcohol Drinking and MRI Outcomes NCT04831684 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.