Acute Treatment Trial in Adult Subjects With Migraines
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-11, after 2019-03-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutemonths priorprior topainmigraine
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsmoderategastricefficacy -
Sponsor's past trials: 1797 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 160 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1797 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 160 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- zavegepant
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Randomized Trial in Adult Participants With Acute Migraines NCT04571060 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Oral Zavegepant in Migraine Prevention NCT04804033 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety Trial of BHV-2100 for the Acute Treatment of Migraine NCT06603623 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Trial of BHV3000 (Rimegepant) 75 mg for the Acute Treatment of Migraine NCT04574362 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Trial in Adult Subjects With Acute Migraines NCT03461757 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.