The Efficacy and Molecular Mechanism of Botulinum Toxin in the Reduction of Breast Reduction Mammoplasty Scar Formation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-30, after 2019-06-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breastsurgeryundergoingpostoperativerna
Phrases that lowered it: participate ininvestigateto participatebotulinumefficacy and -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 78 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 30 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 25 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abobotulinumtoxina
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Early Postoperative Prevention and Treatment of Median Sternotomy Scars With Botulinum Toxin Type A Injection NCT02886988 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Botulinum Toxin is a Potential Prophylactic Therapy for Minimizing Post-excisional Scarring (Allergan Botox Scar Study) NCT02623829 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Botulinum Toxin A (Botox) in Tissue Expander Breast Reconstruction NCT01591746 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Botox in the Healing of Surgical Wounds of the Neck NCT01177358 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Botulinum Toxin A Single Blind Split-Face Randomized Pilot Study NCT02907268 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.