Paclitaxel vs Paclitaxel + Cetuximab in Recurrent - Metastatic Head & Neck Carcinoma After Failure of a 1º Chemotherapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-10-02, after 2011-02-16 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticneckchemotherapypaclitaxelsquamous
Phrases that lowered it: pulmonarylinethe efficacytypepresence -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14747 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2781 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cetuximab, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Cetuximab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck (SCCHN) NCT00971932 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Chemotherapy With Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT01289522 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Platinum-Cetuximab Combined With Docetaxel or With 5FU in Patients With Recurrent/Metastatic HNSCC NCT02268695 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Paclitaxel Plus Cetuximab After First-line Checkpoint Inhibitor Failure NCT04278092 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Cetuximab Plus Radiotherapy Versus Cisplatin Plus Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT01216020 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.