New Ovarian Stimulation With Random Start, Use of Progestin Protocol for Oocyte Donors
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-10-30, after 2020-09-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: donorstudy ishormonaldonationmenstrual
Phrases that lowered it: countcycleovariancyclespatient -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1678 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1678 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 393 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- desogestrel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dual Ovarian Stimulation in the Same IVF/ICSI Cycles for Treatment of Poor Ovarian Responders NCT02732808 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Progestin Primed Double Stimulation Protocol Versus Flexible GnRH Antagonist Protocol in Poor Responders NCT04537078 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- COmbining Oral Letrozole and Clomiphene for Ovarian Stimulation (COOL-COS) Associated With Corifollitropin Alfa: a Pilot Study NCT02448459 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Dual Ovarian Stimulation (DUOSTIM) for Poor Ovarian Responders NCT03803228 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Optimisation of Follicular Recruitment in IVM Cycles NCT03197077 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.