Initial Investigation of [18F]P16-129 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients and Healthy Volunteers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-02, after 2018-02-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimermripetstrokescan
Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersscreeningphysical examinationmale -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Tau Screening Study in Subjects With Early Symptomatic AD NCT03467477 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Study to Investigate the Brain Biodistribution of 18F GSK2647544 in Healthy Subjects to Determine Its Ability to Cross the Blood-brain-barrier. NCT01924858 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
- 3-month Study of MSDC-0160 Effects on Brain Glucose Utilization, Cognition & Safety in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01374438 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Tau Screening Study in Patients With Early Symptomatic AD NCT03322462 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.