Immunobridging Study of 9- Valent Human Papillomavirus (9vHPV) Vaccine (V503) in Chinese Females 9 to 45 Years of Age (V503-024)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsstagedefined assquamousbowel
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationimmunogenicityparticipantvaccines
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1251 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 9 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity, Safety and Tolerability of Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccine (V501) in Chinese Girls Aged 9-19 Years and Young Women Aged 20-26 Years (V501-213) NCT03493542 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of 9-valent HPV Recombinant Vaccine in Chinese Healthy Females NCT05372016 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ⅲ Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Immunogenicity, Safety of Quadrivalent HPV Recombinant Vaccine in Chinese Healthy Females NCT05584332 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of 4-valent and 9-valent HPV Recombinant Vaccine in Chinese Healthy Females NCT04425291 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Blinded, Placebo-controlled Phase I Clinical Trial Evaluating the Safety and Preliminary Immunogenicity of a 11-valent Recombinant Human Papillomavirus Vaccine (Hansenulapolymorpha) in Chinese Women Aged 9-45 Years NCT04083196 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.