The Effect of Early Treatment of PC945 on Aspergillus Fumigatus Lung Infection in Lung Transplant Patients.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-06-01, after 2019-09-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectlungbreasteligiblefungal
Phrases that lowered it: participantsinfectedmultiplewill receivemyocardial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Open-label Safety Study of PC945 (Opelconazole) Prophylaxis or Pre-emptive Therapy Against Pulmonary Aspergillosis in Lung Transplant Recipients (OPERA-S Study) NCT05037851 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- The Effect of PC945 on Aspergillus Fumigatus Lung Infection in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis NCT03870841 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- The Effect of PC945 on Aspergillus or Candida Lung Infections in Patients With Asthma or Chronic Respiratory Diseases NCT03745196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of PC945 (Opelconazole) in Combination With Other Antifungal Therapy for the Treatment of Refractory Invasive Pulmonary Aspergillosis (OPERA-T Study) NCT05238116 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
- Azole-echinocandin Combination Therapy for Invasive Aspergillosis NCT04876716 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.