AScalate: Treat-to-target in Axial Spondyloarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-09-22, after 2019-06-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mritherapypatientactivepatients
Phrases that lowered it: open labelefficacyinvestigatedrugscreening -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1230 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 303808 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1230 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 158 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 303808 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 66013 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 47.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- adalimumab, secukinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab in Patients With Ankylosing Spondylitis NCT02896127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- 16 Week Efficacy and 2 Year Long Term Safety and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Patients With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis NCT01358175 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- SKIPPAIN - Speed of Onset of SecuKinumab-Induced Relief From Pain in Patients With AxIal SpoNdyloarthritis NCT03136861 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ustekinumab in the Treatment of Anti-TNFα Naive Participants With Active Radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis NCT02437162 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- 16-week Efficacy and 3-year Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Active Ankylosing Spondylitis Patients NCT02008916 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.