Subacromial Methylprednisolone Versus Ketorolac for Shoulder Impingement

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidney diseaseimaginginjectionmonthsevere
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmagastrointestinalmoderateinflammatoryulcer
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14411 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of Ultrasound-Guided Subacromial vs. Systemic Steroid Injections for Frozen Shoulder: a Multicenter Pilot Study NCT06626568 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of AIN457/Secukinumab in Patients With Rotator Cuff Tendinopathy NCT05569174 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Intra-articular Corticosteroids Are Widely Used for Adhesive Capsulitis, But Alternatives Are Required for Patients With Contraindications. Hyaluronic Acid (HA) and Ketorolac Have Shown Individual Benefits. However, Evidence on Their Combination Remains Limited. NCT07183436 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Dexamethasone Versus Ketorolac Injection for the Treatment of Local Inflammatory Hand and Upper Extremity Disorders NCT02266433 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability of 4975 in Patients Undergoing Arthroscopic Surgery to Repair the Rotator Cuff of the Shoulder NCT00672568 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.