Study Evaluating the Mechanism of Action of PF-04965842 Monotherapy for Moderate-to-severe Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebokeywomenpriorchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisatopicmoderateparticipantstopical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1900 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of PF-04965842 in Subjects Aged 12 Years And Older With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03349060 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Efficacy and Safety of PF-04965842 in Subjects Aged 12 Years And Older With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03575871 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study To Evaluate Pf-04965842 In Subjects With Moderate To Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT02780167 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Efficacy and Safety of PF-04965842 in Subjects Aged 12 Years and Over With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis With the Option of Rescue Treatment in Flaring Subjects NCT03627767 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Efficacy and Safety of PF-04965842 and Dupilumab in Adult Subjects With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis on Background Topical Therapy NCT03720470 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.