A Study of JNJ-64530440 in Healthy Japanese Male Participants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-07-17, after 2019-04-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitypsoriasislimited totolerability andnot limited
Phrases that lowered it: healthydsmkginclusivephysical examination -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 86 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Single and Multiple Dose Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of JNJ-42165279 in Healthy Japanese Male Participants NCT03564379 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study of JNJ-61393215 in Healthy Japanese Male Participants NCT04713930 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study of JNJ-40411813 in Healthy Japanese Male Participants NCT04677530 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of JNJ-42847922 in Healthy Japanese Male Participants NCT02555124 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics Study of JNJ-54861911 in Healthy Japanese Male Participants NCT02180269 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.