Umbralisib and Rituximab as Initial Therapy for Patients With Follicular Lymphoma and Marginal Zone Lymphoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelsyndromeheartinstitutionalradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: lymphomahcvrnainvestigatorpatients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 199 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 82035 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16146 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ublituximab Followed by Response-driven Addition of Umbralisib for Treatment-naive Follicular or Marginal Zone Lymphoma NCT04508647 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Ublituximab and Umbralisib With CHOP (U2-CHOP) Followed by U2 Maintenance (U2-CHOP-U2) in Previously Untreated Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) NCT04692155 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Bendamustine, Bortezomib, and Rituximab in Patients With Previously Untreated Low Grade Lymphoma NCT01029730 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Copanlisib With Rituximab-Bendamustine in Patients With Relapsed-Refractory Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma NCT04433182 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Ibrutinib and Venetoclax in Relapsed and Refractory Follicular Lymphoma NCT02956382 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.