Efficacy and Safety of Rituximab in the Treatment of Good Prognosis Microscopic Polyangiitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcancerto determinebreastdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyaccordingefficacy andsafety ofsevere
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 836 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 108320 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25068 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of Two Treatments in the Remission of Vasculitis NCT00748644 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Comparison Study of Two Rituximab Regimens in the Remission of ANCA Associated Vasculitis NCT01731561 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Maintenance of Remission With Rituximab Versus Azathioprine for Newly-diagnosed or Relapsing Eosinophilic Granulomatosis With Polyangiitis. NCT03164473 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Rituximab in Eosinophilic Granulomatosis With Polyangiitis NCT02807103 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Phase IIa Study of Intravenous Rituximab in Pediatric Participants With Severe Granulomatosis With Polyangiitis (Wegener's) or Microscopic Polyangiitis NCT01750697 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.