An Active Treatment Study of SRK-015 in Patients With Type 2 or Type 3 Spinal Muscular Atrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningtypedosingstableonset
  Phrases that lowered it: patientgrowthpatientstherapyprotein
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 21 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Olesoxime (TRO19622) in 3-25 Years SMA Patients. NCT01302600 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Nusinersen (ISIS 396443) in Participants With Later-onset Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) NCT02292537 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• An Open Label Study of LMI070 (Branaplam) in Type 1 Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) NCT02268552 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Study of RO6885247 in Adult and Pediatric Patients With Spinal Muscular Atrophy (MOONFISH) NCT02240355 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Nusinersen (ISIS 396443) in Participants With Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA). NCT02462759 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.