Comparative Study of Oral Anticoagulation in Left Ventricular Thrombi
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-05-01, after 2018-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ventricularleftmyocardialstrokeanticoagulation
Phrases that lowered it: oralclinicalaim ofsafetyform -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 244011 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 37347 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 244011 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 37347 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rivaroxaban, warfarin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Apixaban Versus Warfarin in Patients With Left Ventricular Thrombus NCT02982590 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Apixaban Versus Warfarin in Patients With Left Ventricular (LV) Thrombus NCT03232398 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Apixaban in Patients With Left Ventricular Thrombus NCT05208398 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Rivaroxaban vErsus Warfarin for Antithrombotic TheRapy in Patients With LeFt Ventricular Thrombus After Acute STEMI NCT05705089 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Exploring the Efficacy of Once Daily Oral Rivaroxaban for Treatment of Thrombus in Left Atrial/Left Atrial Appendage in Subjects With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter NCT01839357 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.