Pivotal Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Dupilumab in Patients With Moderate-to-severe COPD With Type 2 Inflammation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpriordefinedto screeningpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: copdmoderatepulmonaryfev1to evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 943 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9467 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pivotal Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Dupilumab in Patients With Moderate to Severe COPD With Type 2 Inflammation NCT04456673 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-Concept Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of SAR440340 (Anti-IL-33 mAb) in Patients With Moderate-to-severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03546907 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Rademikibart Add-on Treatment of an Acute COPD Exacerbation (Seabreeze STAT COPD) NCT06940154 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Dupilumab in Patients With Persistent Asthma NCT03782532 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Dupilumab in Patients With Persistent Asthma (Liberty Asthma Quest) NCT02414854 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.