ASCEND GO-2: Study of RVT-1401 for the Treatment of Participants With Active, Moderate to Severe Graves' Ophthalmopathy ( GO )
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-04-15, after 2019-07-23 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: eyedefinedseveretreatment ofassociated
Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe effecteffect ofand safetyefficacy and -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of RVT-1401 for the Treatment of Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Graves' Ophthalmopathy (GO) NCT03922321 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Teprotumumab (RV 001) Treatment in Patients With Active Thyroid Eye Disease NCT01868997 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of Veligrotug (VRDN 001) in Participants With Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) NCT05176639 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of SHR-1314 by Subcutaneous Injection in Active Moderate to Severe Graves' Orbitopathy Patients NCT05394857 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- Study to Assess Batoclimab in Participants With Active Thyroid Eye Disease NCT05517421 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.