A Study of Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of ATG-010 in Relapsed Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcellsweekblockprior
  Phrases that lowered it: plasmaopen labelinhibitorsfemalemultiple
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bortezomib, Selinexor, and Dexamethasone in Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT03110562 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• STUDY THAT COMPARE 3 ARM: MLN9708 DEXAMETHASONE, MLN9708 CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE AND DEXAMETHASONE, MLN9708 THALIDOMIDE AND DEXAMETHASONE FOLLOWED BY MAINTENANCE WITH MLN9708 IN NEWLY DIAGNOSED ELDERLY MULTIPLE MYELOMA PATIENTS NCT02586038 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Trial Evaluating Efficacy & Safety of RVD +/- Panobinostat in Transplant Eligible, Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (NDMM) NCT02720510 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Oral Combination of Ixazomib (MLN9708) With Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone in Patients With Newly Diagnosed or Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02046070 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Escalating Doses of Thalidomide in Conjunction With Bortezomib and HIgh Dose Melphalan for BSCT NCT01242267 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.