A Study to Determine if New Types of Malaria Vaccines Are Safe, Effective and Lead to Immunity in Kenyan Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dleffectivecellpast monthsfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinationhealthyimmunogenicitymalevaccine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 336 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Immunogenicity of RH5.1/Matrix-M in Adults and Infants Living in Tanzania NCT04318002 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Challenge Study to Assess the Protective Efficacy of Two Malaria Vaccine Candidates NCT01623557 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Safety, Immunogenicity, and Protective Efficacy of Two Regimens of Radiation Attenuated Plasmodium Falciparum NF54 Sporozoites (PfSPZ Vaccine) During Natural Transmission Season in Healthy African Adults in Mali NCT03510481 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of New Malaria Vaccine Candidates ChAd63 Pfs25-IMX313 and MVA Pfs25-IMX313 NCT02532049 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Candidate Malaria Vaccine Using Novel Routes of Administration NCT03084289 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.