A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin: Insulin 287 and Insulin Glargine in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Not Used Insulin Before

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreater thaneffectivesubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsinsulinboth inclusivedaycombination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 677 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Research Study in People With Type 2 Diabetes to Compare Two Types of Insulin: Insulin 287 and Insulin Glargine NCT03922750 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Insulin 287 Once a Week to Insulin Glargine (100 Units/mL) Once a Day in People With Type 2 Diabetes. NCT03751657 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin, a New Insulin, Insulin Icodec and an Available Insulin, Insulin Glargine, in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Not Used Insulin Before NCT04460885 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin, a New Insulin, Insulin Icodec and an Available Insulin, Insulin Degludec, in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Not Used Insulin Before (ONWARDS 3) NCT04795531 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin, a New Weekly Insulin, Insulin Icodec and an Available Daily Insulin, Insulin Degludec, in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Use Daily Insulin NCT04770532 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.