Zephyrus I: Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Pamrevlumab in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: fibrosisto screeningkeyrandomizationpulmonary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andparticipantinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Zephyrus II: Efficacy and Safety Study of Pamrevlumab in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT04419558 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of FG-3019 (Pamrevlumab) in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01890265 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of PRM-151 in Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT02550873 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Macitentan Use in an Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Clinical Study NCT00903331 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Test How Effective and Safe GLPG1205 is for Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT03725852 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.