A Study to Investigate Tislelizumab (BGB-A317) Versus Placebo in Combination With Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Participants With Localized Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-03-31, after 2019-06-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellplacebocarcinomaconcurrentrandomized double
Phrases that lowered it: diseasesparticipantsand safetycombinationefficacy and -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 90053 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13057 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 38 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 90053 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13057 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, paclitaxel, tislelizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Tislelizumab (BGB-A317) in Combination With Chemotherapy as First Line Treatment in Participants With Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03783442 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tislelizumab (BGB-A317) Versus Chemotherapy as Second Line Treatment in Participants With Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03430843 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Study To Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Sitravatinib in Combination With Tislelizumab in Participants With Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05461794 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- Study of Tislelizumab in Participants With Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04974047 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate LBL-007 in Combination With Tislelizumab Plus Chemotherapy in Participants With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT06010303 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.