A Study to Evaluate the Safety of MEDI8897 for the Prevention of Medically Attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus(RSV) Lower Respiratory Track Infection (LRTI) in High-risk Children

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (47 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1561 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationacutesubjects withcardiactime of
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinereceiptchildrenvaccinationevaluate
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 132 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 0 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clesrovimab (MK-1654) in Infants and Children at Increased Risk for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Disease (MK-1654-007) NCT04938830 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Study of a Single Intramuscular Dose of Nirsevimab in the Prevention of Hospitalizations Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Healthy Term and Preterm Infants During the First Year of Life NCT05437510 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Viral Inhibition in Children for Treatment of RSV NCT02654171 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study on the Immunogenicity and Safety of 3 Different Dose Concentrations of a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine in Infants and Toddlers NCT06705140 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Immunogenicity of a Single Dose of the Recombinant Live-Attenuated Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccines RSV ΔNS2/Δ1313/I1314L, RSV 6120/ΔNS2/1030s, RSV 276 or Placebo, Delivered as Nose Drops to RSV-Seronegative Children 6 to 24 Months of Age NCT03916185 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.