A Pharmacokinetic and Safety Study of Moxidectin to Identify an Optimal Dose for Treatment of Children 4 to 11 Years

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseasepurposeto determinechronicinfection
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticssingle doseevaluate thehealthto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety of a Single Dose of Moxidectin Compared With Ivermectin in Individuals Living in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas and in Individuals Living in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas With High Levels of Lymphatic Filariasis Co-endemicity Receiving Concomitant Albendazole NCT04311671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Moxidectin 2 mg Ivermectin-controlled in Loa Loa Microfilaremic Patients NCT04049851 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study of Moxidectin for Treatment of Scabies NCT03905265 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Moxidectin in Adults With Scabies NCT05875441 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Adverse Events, Change in Disease Activity and How Oral ABBV-4083 Capsules When Given Alone or In Combination With Albendazole Capsules Moves in The Body of Adult Participants With Onchocerca Volvulus Infection NCT04913610 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.