Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Inhaled Esketamine in Treatment-resistant Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: scoredepressiontreatmentmajorresistant
  Phrases that lowered it: participantpharmacokineticsdayparticipantsblood
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Inhaled Esketamine in Treatment-resistant Bipolar Depression NCT03965871 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Long-term, Safety and Efficacy Study of Intranasal Esketamine in Treatment-resistant Depression NCT02497287 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant for Relapse Prevention in Adult Participants With Treatment-resistant Depression NCT02493868 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Fixed Doses of Intranasal Esketamine in Japanese Participants With Treatment Resistant Depression NCT02918318 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Intranasal Esketamine in Treatment-resistant Depression NCT01998958 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.