Clinical Trial for the Investigational Drug (PB-201) in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (137 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabeteswith typediabetes mellitusrandomizationhours
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningpharmacokineticsmedical historyeffect ofdosing
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-finding of PB-119 Administered Subcutaneously Once-weekly Versus Placebo in Drug-naïve T2DM Subjects NCT03520972 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of PB-119 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes and Not Well-controlled by Metformin Monotherapy NCT04504396 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding of PB-119 Administered Subcutaneously Once Weekly Versus Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03604419 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Efficacy of PBI-4050 & Its Effect on Relevant Biomarkers in T2DM Patients With Metabolic Syndrome NCT03081598 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1/2a, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD Response of PB1023 Injection Following Single and Multiple SQ Doses in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01236404 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.