Efficacy and Tolerability of Erenumab in the Prophylactic Treatment of Persistent Post-Traumatic Headache

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: injurysubjectpressuretraumaticmmhg
  Phrases that lowered it: mildefficacy andto evaluatethe efficacyevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 15.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multidisciplinary Translational Approach to Investigate Mechanisms Predictors & Prevention of Persistent PTH NCT04098250 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of TEV-48125 (Fremanezumab) for the Prevention of Episodic Cluster Headache (ECH) NCT02945046 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• A Study of K-645 in the Treatment of Multiple Migraine Attacks NCT07116499 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
• A Safety and Efficacy Study to Evaluate AMG 334 in Migraine Prevention NCT02630459 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Fremanezumab (TEV-48125) for the Prevention of Chronic Cluster Headache (CCH) NCT02964338 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.