Abemaciclib in Treating Patients With Surgically Resectable, Chemotherapy Resistant, Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 23% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerregistrationbiopsypriorcarboplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationmoderatepatients whoresistantpulmonary
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 250 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2609 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bevacizumab, Metronomic Chemotherapy (CM), Diet and Exercise After Preoperative Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer NCT00925652 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Brostallicin and Cisplatin in Treating Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01091454 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Trial of Eribulin Followed by Doxorubicin & Cyclophosphamide for Her2-negative, Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01498588 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Addition of Carboplatin to Neoadjuvant Therapy for Triple-negative and HER2-positive Early Breast Cancer NCT01426880 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Randomized Controlled Trial of Genomically Directed Therapy in Patients With Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT02101385 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.