A Phase II Trial Assessing Nivolumab in Class II Expressing Microsatellite Stable Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapymetastaticrnahivcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: bowelfemaleinsulinvaccinetrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11502 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• M7824 in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer or With Advanced Solid Tumors With Microsatellite Instability NCT03436563 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Modulation Of The Tumour Microenvironment Using Either Vascular Disrupting Agents or STAT3 Inhibition in Order to Synergise With PD1 Inhibition in Microsatellite Stable, Refractory Colorectal Cancer NCT03647839 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab and Relatlimab in Patients With Microsatellite Stable (MSS) Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT03642067 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• RP2/RP3 in Combination With Atezolizumab and Bevacizumab for the Treatment of Patients With CRC NCT05733611 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab After Radiation for Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Progressing on Chemotherapy NCT03007407 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.