Ferric Citrate for the Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Undergoing Hemodialysis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-02-20, after 2019-06-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: screeningmonths priorsubjectskidneyprior to
Phrases that lowered it: patients whopatients withaminotransferasetimesefficacy and -
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12731 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1622 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ferric, sevelamer, sevelamer carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ferric Citrate for the Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Undergoing Hemodialysis NCT04456803 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- PA21 Safety and Efficacy in Adult Chinese Subjects NCT03644264 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Phase 3 Study of the Effects of Ferric Citrate in Subjects With End Stage Renal Disease NCT01503736 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Ferric Citrate for the Prevention of Renal Failure in Adults With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease NCT05085275 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- A 58-Week Safety and Efficacy Trial of Ferric Citrate in Patients With ESRD on Dialysis NCT01191255 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.