Adrecizumab in Cardiogenic Shock

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: shockventricularto assessdialysisassess the
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacythis trialinvestigatorsafetytrial to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Patients With Early Septic Shock and Bio-Adrenomedullin(ADM) Concentration > 70 pg/ml With ADRECIZUMAB NCT03085758 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study of Multistep Pharmacological and Invasive Management for Cardiogenic Shock NCT02591771 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Istaroxime for Pre-Cardiogenic Shock NCT04325035 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Esmolol Infusion for Patients With Septic Shock and Persistent Tachycardia NCT02841241 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Ivabradine for Heart Rate Control In Septic Shock NCT04031573 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.